Limiting climate change would require substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions which, together with adaptation, can limit climate change risks, a UN-backed expert panel says.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveals in a blunt report that continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.
The IPCC's Synthesis Report was published on Sunday in Copenhagen, after a week of intense debate between scientists and government officials.
“Adaptation can play a key role in decreasing these risks,” said
Vicente Barros, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group II. “Adaptation is so
important because it can be integrated with the pursuit of development,
and can help prepare for the risks to which we are already committed by
past emissions and existing infrastructure.”
But adaptation alone is not enough. Substantial and sustained
reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are at the core of limiting the
risks of climate change. And since mitigation reduces the rate as well
as the magnitude of warming, it also increases the time available for
adaptation to a particular level of climate change, potentially by
several decades.
Mitigation Pathways
There are multiple mitigation pathways to achieve the substantial
emissions reductions over the next few decades necessary to limit, with a
greater than 66% chance, the warming to 2ºC – the goal set by
governments. However, delaying additional mitigation to 2030 will
substantially increase the technological, economic, social and
institutional challenges associated with limiting the warming over the
21st century to below 2ºC relative to pre-industrial levels, the report finds.
“It is technically feasible to transition to a low-carbon economy,”
said Youba Sokona, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group III. “But what is
lacking are appropriate policies and institutions. The longer we wait to
take action, the more it will cost to adapt and mitigate climate
change.”
The Synthesis Report finds that mitigation cost estimates vary,
but that global economic growth would not be strongly affected. In
business-as-usual scenarios, consumption – a proxy for economic growth –
grows by 1.6 to 3 percent per year over the 21st century.
Ambitious mitigation would reduce this by about 0.06 percentage points.
“Compared to the imminent risk of irreversible climate change impacts,
the risks of mitigation are manageable,” said Sokona.
These economic estimates of mitigation costs do not account for the
benefits of reduced climate change, nor do they account for the numerous
co-benefits associated with human health, livelihoods, and development.
“The scientific case for prioritizing action on climate change is
clearer than ever,” Pachauri said. “We have little time before the
window of opportunity to stay within 2ºC of warming closes. To keep a
good chance of staying below 2ºC, and at manageable costs, our emissions
should drop by 40 to 70 percent globally between 2010 and 2050, falling
to zero or below by 2100. We have that opportunity, and the choice is
in our hands.”
Comprehensive Assessment
The Synthesis Report, written under the leadership of IPCC Chair R.K.
Pachauri, forms the
capstone of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. The
first three volumes, based on outlines approved by the IPCC’s 195 member
governments in October 2009, were released over the past fourteen
months: The Physical Science Basis in September 2013, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, in March 2014 and Mitigation of Climate Change in April 2014.
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| R.K Pachauri |
IPCC reports draw on the many years of work by the scientific
community investigating climate change. More than 830 coordinating lead
authors, lead authors and review editors from over 80 countries and
covering a range of scientific, technical and socio-economic views and
expertise, produced the three working group contributions, supported by
over 1000 contributing authors and drawing on the insights of over 2,000
expert reviewers in a process of repeated review and revision.
The
authors assessed more than 30,000 scientific papers to develop the Fifth
Assessment Report. About 60 authors and editors drawn from the IPCC
Bureau and from Working Group author teams have been involved in the
writing of the Synthesis Report. Their work was made possible by the
contributions and dedication of the Synthesis Report Technical Support
Unit.
I would like to thank the hundreds of experts from the world’s
scientific community who have given freely of their time and expertise
to produce the most comprehensive assessment of climate change yet
undertaken,” said Pachauri. “I hope this report will serve the needs of
the world’s governments and provide the scientific basis to negotiators
as they work towards a new global climate agreement.”
The IPCC
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the world body for assessing the science related to
climate change. It was set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological
Organisation (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP),
endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly, to provide policymakers
with regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its
impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation.
The IPCC assesses the thousands of scientific papers published each
year to inform policymakers about what we know and don’t know about the
risks related to climate change. The IPCC identifies where there is
agreement in the scientific community, where there are differences of
opinion, and where further research is needed.
The IPCC offers policymakers a snapshot of what the scientific
community understands about climate change. IPCC reports are
policy-relevant without being policy-prescriptive. They do not promote
particular views or actions. The IPCC evaluates options for
policymakers, but it does not tell governments what to do.
The IPCC reports draw on the wisdom and dedication of the entire
scientific community dealing with climate change, with the involvement
of experts from all regions and diverse scientific backgrounds. IPCC
authors and reviewers, including the Chair and other elected officials,
work as volunteers. They are not paid for their work at the IPCC. Only a
dozen permanent staff work in the IPCC’s Secretariat in Geneva.
The members of the IPCC, comprising the Panel, are its 195 member
governments. They reach consensus in endorsing the reports of the IPCC
as comprehensive and balanced assessments of the scientific, technical,
and socioeconomic literature. They set its procedures and budget in
plenary meetings of the Panel. The word “Intergovernmental” in the
organisation’s name reflects this role. It is not a United Nations
agency, but was established by two UN organisations – WMO and UNEP.
IPCC reports are requested by the Panel and developed by authors
drawn from the scientific community in an extensive process of repeated
drafting, review, and revision. Scientists and other experts are invited
to participate in this review process. The Panel endorses these reports
in a dialogue with the scientists who write them. In this discussion
the scientists have the last word on scientific accuracy.
The Fifth Assessment Report
The IPCC produces comprehensive assessment reports on climate change
every six years or so. Among its other products it also issues special
reports on particular topics requested by its members, and methodology
reports and software to help members report their greenhouse gas
inventories (emissions minus removals).
With the release of the Synthesis Report, the IPCC has now finalised
the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The AR5 is the most comprehensive
assessment of climate change ever undertaken. Over 830 scientists from
over 80 countries were selected to form the author teams producing the
report. They in turn drew on the work of over 1,000 contributing authors
and over 2,000 expert reviewers. AR5 assessed over 30,000 scientific
papers.
The 1535-page contribution of Working Group I (The Physical Science Basis) to the AR5 was finalised and released in September 2013. The Working Group II contribution (Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability),
consisting of Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects (1132 pages) and Part
B: Regional Aspects (688 pages), was finalised and released in March
2014. The Working Group III contribution (Mitigation of Climate Change) of about 1500 pages was finalised and released in April 2014.
Working Group I’s Technical Support Unit is hosted by the University
of Bern in Switzerland and is supported by the Swiss Government. The
Working Group Co-Chairs are Qin Dahe of China and Thomas Stocker of
Switzerland. Working Group II’s Technical Support Unit is hosted by the
Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California, and is
supported by the U.S. Government. Its Co- Chairs are Vicente Barros and
Chris Field.
Working Group III’s Technical Support Unit is hosted by the
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and supported by
the Government of Germany. Its Co-Chairs are Ottmar Edenhofer of
Germany, Ramón Pichs-Madruga of Cuba and Youba Sokona of Mali.
Synthesis Report
The Synthesis Report is the capstone of an assessment report. As its
name implies, it distils, synthesises and integrates the findings of the
Working Group contributions into a concise document, of about 100
pages.
This integrated approach allows the Synthesis Report to draw on the
findings of the three Working Group reports as well as the two Special
Reports brought out in 2011. It highlights contrasts and makes
comparisons between findings from different Working Groups. These
comparisons provide critically important information for policymakers.
The writing of the Synthesis Report is led by the Chair of the IPCC,
R. K. Pachauri. Its Core Writing Team includes authors of the Working
Group reports and the members of the IPCC’s Executive Committee. The
Synthesis Report comprises a Summary for Policymakers and a longer
report.
At its recent meeting in October 2014, the Panel approved the
Summary for Policymakers line by line, and adopted the Longer Report
section by section, to ensure consistency with the underlying Working
Group reports. The Synthesis Report Technical Support Unit is hosted by
the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) and supported by
the Norwegian Environment Agency.
by Atayi Babs
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